Climate Pledges Fall Dangerously Short of the 1.5 °C Target

In war in the face of climate change, one figure appears above the rest: 1.5 degrees Celsius. It may be difficult to wrap your head around the tropical climate, but the difference between 1.5 degrees Celsius and 2 degrees Celsius is significant. To give one example: At 1.5 degrees Celsius, we are talking about the loss of 70 percent of coral reefs; at 2 degrees Celsius, the corals will be gone. At 1.5 degrees Celsius, 1 in every 100 Arctic summers is free of ice; at 2 degrees Celsius and 1 in 10.

With the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow now nearing completion, one of the biggest questions to be answered is whether you have set a target of 1.5 degrees Celsius. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson said urged countries to “Stop all suspensions in the next few days for 1.5 to be alive.” And a words from a “consensus agreement” asking countries to make climate-related promises in line with 1.5 degrees Celsius ahead of COP27 now has 41 countries to support them, including the United States.

For countries like the Marshall Islands, which experiencing damage from climate change if the air is not controlled, the very idea of ​​not making short-term promises is baseless. “We need to go back and make sure the nationally guaranteed donations are in line with 1.5 degrees C,” said Tina Stege, a Marshall Islands delegation at COP26, on November 10. “We need to have something that can bring us back.

With all the mixed messages coming out of COP26, it can be difficult to know how close we are to achieving the goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius. An analysis released last week and the International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the climate promises made so far in COP26 could help reduce global warming by 1.8 degrees Celsius by the end of this century. But differently analysis From the Climate Action Tracker (CAT) it has been found that what is happening here is increasing the temperature by 2.4 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, and it is the real principles and actions that put the world on the path of global warming of 2.7 degrees Celsius, UN chief executive. Antonio Guterres called it “disaster.” The actual difference between 1.8 degrees Celsius and 2.7 degrees Celsius can be huge.

So what’s going on? The question is, this is all simulations, who by nature are supposed to make some predictions about what will happen. The IEA review determined that all long-term promises of zero will be fulfilled and include high-level promises made last week, such as one to reduce methane emissions by 30 percent by 2030.

But all of these promises are currently not included in the UN short-term international promises, known as the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).

When the CAT decided the same as the IEA, it came back with the same numbers, says Niklas Höhne, a colleague at the NewClimate Institute and co-author of the CAT study. “We also hope to drop to 1.8 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, but we warn that this will not happen,” he said. “Countries do not have enough short-term policies to navigate their goals. Short-term problem. ”

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